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Trump’s Re-election – Energy Consequences for the World

As the conference has demonstrated, energy security encompasses a wide array of dimensions. It can be approached through international, regional, and national lenses, different philosophical perspectives, or simply by examining the economic challenges faced by households. Undoubtedly, energy issues are among the most critical challenges facing both Poland and the EU today.

Photos by fotograficznie.pl.warszawa

Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States raises numerous questions about the consequences of this choice for both the U.S. itself and the world. Naturally, European public opinion remains focused on potential developments in the war in Ukraine. What policy will Trump pursue regarding Russia’s invasion? This question preoccupied many analysts before the election and still remains relevant. However, this focus on Ukraine often overshadows other significant issues, including those critically important for Poland.

Therefore, it was by discussing the implications of Trump’s return to the White House that we began the first panel of the international conference on energy security in Central and Eastern Europe, held on November 18 in Warsaw. The event, co-organized by the Jagiellonian Club, analyzed the consequences of the U.S. elections for the EU’s economy and climate policies. While the discussions featured a variety of perspectives, the dominant view was that Trump and his administration pose a tangible challenge to Europe.

Aaron Korewa from the Atlantic Council emphasized Trump’s strong focus on developing extractive industries, as shown by his systematical removal of legislative barriers. His approach to renewable energy is closer to that of a businessman rather than a leader committed to environmental protection. This could lead Trump to challenge EU climate policies and initiate direct economic competition.

Such a conclusion points to a critical question: will the EU manage to persuade the rest of the world to adopt ambitious climate goals, without U.S. support? On the other hand, though, it should be noted that Biden’s policies, expressed through the Inflation Reduction Act, have also posed considerable challenges. Since the document unleashed billions in government subsidies for green technology investments, it also created competition for Europe, albeit of a different kind.

The effectiveness of such U.S. policies has been evident over the past few years, as many companies relocated from Europe to the U.S. or at least considered doing so. Thus, already during the first-panel discussion, an essential question emerged, namely, how can Europe halt its declining economic competitiveness?

How to Improve the Green Deal?

The panelists offered various answers to the question of what has weakened the EU’s economic competitiveness. Tomasz Wróblewski from the Warsaw Enterprise Institute argued that while Europe has succeeded in the field of climate protection by cutting emissions, it has struggled significantly in economic terms. According to him, the optimistic assumption that climate and economic goals are compatible was proven incorrect. Wróblewski stressed the necessity of revising the Green Deal and reducing the excessive regulations and bureaucracy that have hindered investment in the EU.

This view was challenged by Marcin Korolec, the president of the Institute for Green Economy, who stated that while existing climate policies pose challenges to the economy, abandoning climate goals is not the solution. Instead, he argued, the tools used to achieve them need to change. Korolec proposed that the EU should adopt an approach similar to the one implemented in the U.S., and focus on incentivizing investments in green technologies rather than relying excessively on regulations, which has hitherto been the EU’s main strategy.

Korolec suggested establishing a European Sovereignty Fund to finance investments in Europe, modeled on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. This „carrot” strategy, as opposed to a „stick” approach, could not only alleviate societal resistance to controversial bans and fees but also act as a catalyst for the EU economy.

Korolec emphasized the need for an ambitious industrial policy in the EU. Years of outsourcing production beyond Europe and the growing competition of China and the U.S., both of which prioritize domestic industry support, have eroded the economic position of the European continent.

Conference participants witnessed a particularly heated debate over the reasons for a significant rise in energy prices in the last few years. Wróblewski attributed this to the European Green Deal and his view was echoed by MEP Anna Bryłka from the National Movement. During the second conference panel, she highlighted that the costs of the European Green Deal extend beyond energy to almost all sectors of the economy. She argued that these costs lead to higher prices for businesses, governments, and households, forcing people to lower their living standards.

Korolec, by contrast, named the EU’s necessary decision to sever ties with Russian energy supplies as the primary driver of rising energy costs. Alberic Mongrenier from the European Initiative for Energy Security added that this policy of derussification should continue despite higher energy prices, as it effectively cuts off Russia’s financial resources and limits its ability to escalate the war. Returning to normal energy relations with Russia, Mongrenier stressed, should not be seen as a solution to current challenges.

Krzysztof Perycz-Szczepański, Managing Director of the Poland from Nature Foundation, believes that „the time has come for Europe to reclaim its position”. – The debate around the European Green Deal has tested the patience of both our citizens and political leaders. However, there has been a glimmer of hope in the form of Mario Draghi’s report, which advocates green reindustrialisation as a key development path for Europe. In principle, European climate policy should combine decarbonisation goals with increasing the competitiveness of European manufacturers of solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps and electric cars, said the director of the Poland from Nature Foundation.

„However, the European economy, which has lagged behind due to years of insufficient focus on the development of important green technologies and the extraction and processing of key raw materials, needs a strong impulse forward. This impetus is crucial to reinvigorate R&D and support European manufacturing. It is time for Europe to regain its footing and guarantee a prosperous and secure place to live for future generations” –  he added.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

The second discussion primarily focused on the internal dimensions of the EU’s climate policies. Thomas O’Donnell from the Wilson Center criticized the EU’s overly optimistic assumptions about technological innovations, such as energy storage solutions. He argued that technological progress is slower than the EU anticipates, making it difficult to implement its vision without incurring significant costs. According to O’Donnell, this problem is compounded by Brussels’ lack of acknowledgement, as responsibility for setbacks is often attributed to less significant factors.

Anna Bryłka added that EU institutions failed to meet basic legislative standards, such as conducting Regulatory Impact Assessments. She argued that fulfilling this obligation could have helped anticipate many of the economic consequences of the implemented policies. Bryłka expressed pessimism about the EU’s ability to adjust its climate policies, noting that advanced discussions in the European Parliament revolve not around revising existing policies but introducing new regulations aimed at a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2040.

O’Donnell supported this viewpoint, noting that the election of the new EU Commissioner for Climate Action does not suggest any significant changes in the EU’s climate policy. On a less pessimistic note, Professor Leszek Jesień from Polish Power Grid Company (PSE) presented potential reforms that could strengthen the energy supply side of the European market, outlining several feasible solutions. He argued for the necessity of such reforms without dismissing the principle of „polluter pays.”

China Is Growing Stronger

China emerged as a critical reference point throughout the discussion. Participants frequently mentioned the rapid development of Chinese electromobility and photovoltaics, as well as the influx of these products into the European market. Grace Theodoulou from the Council on Geostrategy pointed out that while China pursues a green revolution, the country is still opening a record number of coal mines, thus keeping its emissions high.

This dual strategy allows China to present itself as a leader in green energy while leveraging fossil fuels to ensure energy stability, often disregarding climate goals. It appears that Beijing views the development of its renewable energy sector less as an effort to save the planet and more as a way to compensate for its lack of domestic oil and gas deposits.

As a result of this approach, as well as similar policies in other non-OECD countries, the EU is achieving its climate goals at great cost, yet with little global impact, as key global emitters do not decrease their emissions. In this context, Anna Bryłka reiterated a common argument of climate policy sceptics, namely that the real issue is not Europe’s 7% share in global emissions but the fact that these emissions are merely being outsourced beyond the EU. She contended that relocating production does nothing to save the climate.

Concluding the discussions about the challenge posed by China, Alberic Mongrenier added that Europe must effectively respond to the growing import of green technologies and products from China. He proposed introducing tariffs on unfairly subsidized Chinese exports to counteract this challenge.

Green vs. Non-Green Conservative Politics

The third panel of the conference showcased the contrasting perspectives on climate policy within the Polish conservative camp. Although both Jadwiga Emilewicz (Sobieski Institute) and Krzysztof Bosak (Deputy Marshal of the Sejm, Confederation) agreed that environmental protection is an integral part of conservative thought, their conclusions differed significantly.

Krzysztof Bosak strongly opposed the current course set by Brussels, arguing that the implemented measures „serve no one’s interests”. He advocated for the utilization of Poland’s coal reserves and reminded attendees that industrial and energy policies were not originally intended to fall within the EU’s competencies. Bosak criticized state interference in the coal sector and emphasized the need to preserve Poland’s mining industry. Echoing Anna Bryłka, he described the EU’s climate strategy as „madness”.

Emilewicz, on the other hand, argued in favor of renewable energy and highlighted the high costs and low calorific value of Polish coal. Instead of what Bosak referred to as „climatism”, she proposed revising the European Green Deal to address its flaws. The former Deputy Prime Minister suggested that energy prices could be reduced by locating power plants closer to the recipients. She also called for greater diversification in energy sources and supported decisive steps toward nuclear energy, a stance echoed by Krzysztof Bosak.

Regional Cooperation

Regional cooperation was a central theme of both the fourth panel and numerous side discussions during the conference. Many participants emphasized that partnerships within Central and Eastern Europe are flourishing, even if they are not in the spotlight.

Urban Rusnak from the Slovak Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs highlighted the importance of the Polish-Slovak interconnector, noting that cooperation with Poland provides Slovakia with access to deliveries via the Baltic Sea. Gabriel Gorbacewski, Lithuania’s Energy Attaché to Poland, stressed the role played by the interconnector linking Poland and Lithuania and drew attention to the strategic use of the Klaipeda port. Beata Daszyńska-Muzyczka, Special Envoy of the Polish President for the Three Seas Initiative, underscored the initiative’s role in supporting regional partnerships by identifying needs and bringing up solutions at a politically significant level.

Konrad Popławski from the Centre for Eastern Studies pointed out the untapped potential of the Three Seas Initiative. He identified industrial policy as a particularly promising area for collaboration, as countries in the Visegrád Group share common challenges. For instance, the automotive sector is facing disruptions caused by the expansion of Chinese electric vehicles.

Popławski expressed hope that Trump’s re-election could revitalize the Three Seas Initiative, noting that the U.S. president was supportive of the project during his first term. Gorbacewski seconded this point and stated that American interests in LNG, nuclear energy, and energy grid modernization create opportunities for deeper and more coordinated action within the initiative.

On the other hand, Rusnak tempered the enthusiasm and reminded participants that connectivity between Central and Eastern European countries remains far below the level of Western Europe. On a similar note, Eugenia Gusilov from the Romania Energy Center stressed the need for better coordination of CEE countries’ efforts, since it has often been lacking in the past.

Those remarks notwithstanding, the conclusion of the discussion was optimistic. Central and Eastern European countries can seize new opportunities linked to anticipated U.S. support and expand the high number of completed projects by enhancing coordination based on dialogue.

Scrutonian Green Conservatism

The conference also featured a philosophical discussion, with one panel dedicated to the ideas of Roger Scruton, a prominent thinker associated with British green conservatism. Konrad Szymański, former Polish Minister for European Union Affairs, explored the paradoxes of Scruton’s reception in Poland. According to Szymański, Scruton serves as a significant reference point for the Polish right, but few take his reflections to heart. For instance, Scruton advocated the principle of „the polluter pays”, a notion that aligns with the fundamentals of the EU’s climate policy, argued Szymański.

Zdzisław Krasnodębski, a former Member of the European Parliament, challenged this interpretation, questioning whether Scruton would approve of the current shape of the EU’s climate policy. Krasnodębski argued that the Green Deal is a top-down initiative lacking grassroots support and which further centralizes power within the EU. Interestingly, he remarked that the Law and Justice Party (PiS) lost the election in 2023 partly because it tried to incorporate some „Scrutonian” ideas, such as the controversial „Five for Animals” policy, which alienated rural conservatives and made them turn away to other political parties.

Sam Hall from the Conservative Environment Network asserted that Scruton would be against imposing solutions on rural communities that fail to account for the unique nature of their work and way of life, a problem he associated with current EU policies.

***

As the conference has demonstrated, energy security encompasses a wide array of dimensions. It can be approached through international, regional, and national lenses, different philosophical perspectives, or simply by examining the economic challenges faced by households. Undoubtedly, energy issues are among the most critical challenges facing both Poland and the EU today.

While for the time being it is impossible to predict which of the solutions proposed during the conference will be translated into legislation, it is crucial to continue influencing the politicians so that their decisions take into account broader perspectives. Therefore, we already invite you to participate in next year’s edition of our conference to discuss the key challenges facing the energy sector.

This article was created in collaboration with the Polska z Natury Foundation, a member of the Our Common Home network, as part of the project organizing the conference „Energy Security in Central and Eastern Europe 2024. Green Conservatism’s Role in Building a More Competitive EU”. Details of the event can be found here.